–submitted by Valerie Johnson
Jon Pevehouse, UW Political Science Professor, asked and answered the question, “How should the Trump administration balance power with constraint to maximize our legitimacy and prosperity?” at the April 5 Rotary meeting.
With graduate student Ryan Powers and Carnegie Foundation grant-funded opinion polls, Pevehouse has a wealth of information on what Americans want in international trade policy:
- The last 5-6 years have found more people interested in trade barriers
- Older, non-college educated people are more interested in trade barriers (these tend to be Trump supporters)
- People want to keep jobs in the US, a platform Bernie Sanders also ran on as evidenced by the many “NO TPP” signs seen at the Democratic convention
- Most American still want free trade (12% margin) even with job losses
- Both political parties are pro-free trade; Hillary Clinton ran on this and Bill Clinton began NAFTA
- Interest in trade barriers follows the economy; people like trade better than trade agreements.
Trump has indicated an interest in re-negotiating NAFTA. Wisconsin has a positive balance of trade with Mexico, even though US does not. The rules of origin Trump complains about were already re-negotiated by Obama as part of the TPP, but Trump threw that out; it would increase the percent of product manufactured/labeled required to be created in Mexico (for example) from 65% to perhaps 85%, decreasing what can come from China.
The concern is the Trump administration likes the power of the US economy, but not the traditional constraints we have used with other countries, such as the foreign ad Bush quietly used or the traditional tools such as the World Bank, WTO, etc.
“But without constraint,” Pevehouse said, “the fear is our power endangers our foreign policy. International order is costly, but gives us legitimacy, as we have had with the last 60 years of prosperity.
Professor Pevehouse’s research in the areas of international relations, international political economy, American foreign policy, international organizations, and political methodology. Topics on which he has recently published include regional trade agreements, human rights institutions, exchange rate politics, and international organizations. He is the author, with Joshua Goldstein, of International Relations, the leading textbook on international politics. He is currently the editor of International Organization, the leading journal in the field of international relations.
Pevehouse has a Ph.D. in Political Science from Ohio State University and a B.A. in Political Science from University of Kansas.
If you missed our meeting this week, you can watch the video here.